A Little Known Signal That Heralds a Big Bitcoin Upswing

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Fenelon L.

In its latest report, “The Bitcoin Monthly”, ARK Invest suggests that a new bullish phase could occur for Bitcoin in 2025, based on an in-depth analysis of its particularly mild current volatility.

Bitcoin’s moderate volatility paves the way for growth in 2025

In its December report, ARK Invest provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin volatility, comparing monthly variations to annual swings. The data reveals that despite notable price movements, current volatility remains moderate by historical standards. This unusual stability indicates that the market has not yet reached its euphoric phase, usually seen during cycle peaks.

The ARK team interprets this period of relative calm as a bullish signal for 2025. The report also draws on several promising on-chain indicators, including the continued increase in mining difficulty and the behavior of older investors.

A particularly striking number emerges from this analysis: 62% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained stationary for more than a year. This metric shows remarkable confidence among long-term holders who are maintaining their positions despite market fluctuations.

Bitcoin's monthly volatility (green line) was relatively mild compared to its annual volatility (purple line) in the fourth quarter. Source: ARK Invest — *Data from ARK Invest shows the monthly volatility (in green) significantly lower than the annual volatility (in purple) of Bitcoin. Source: ARK Invest*

Robust technical fundamentals support the bullish thesis

The soundness of Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals is confirmed by several key indicators. The network’s hash rate continues to set new records and strengthen blockchain security. Short-term holder costs, an important indicator of market sentiment, also indicate a solid foundation for future expansion.

Increasing institutional acceptance also plays a vital role in this stabilization. Capital inflows through regulated investment products show increased market maturity, helping to reduce the asset’s historical volatility.

The combination of these technical factors with moderate volatility creates ideal conditions for a new phase of market expansion in 2025, which may mark the beginning of a new bull cycle for Bitcoin, according to ARK Invest.

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Fenelon L.

I am passionate about Bitcoin, I love exploring the intricacies of blockchain and cryptocurrency and sharing my discoveries with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom are guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is the tool that can make this possible.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY

The comments and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be considered investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.